12.24.20

Applied Critical Thinking

This is “officer grade” material from TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) in Ft Leavenworth, KS. As such, your average prepper bloggers would not be aware of its existence, until now. I present it for your personal education and edification.

https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/critthink.pdf

When you have asshole pundits and bloggers posting fake news stories about Chinese invasions, and throwing out dire warnings of events they make up in their head, the ability to perform critical thinking is necessary these days.

In 1990 when Consumertronics published my first book, I had estimated that the country would have at most six years before a total collapse. Thirty years later the status quo remains. So when some Johnny-come-lately who has only been blogging for five years says there is going to be a civil war tomorrow, I’m skeptical because Johnny has not been around long enough to make that prediction. Especially when Johnny was barely out of kindergarten when I wrote my first book. If he, however, uses the methodology in ATP 2-33-4 and shows his work, I might lend some credence to the claim.

Want to learn more? Check out https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/.

11.14.20

On Big-Mouthed New Yorkers, Honey Pots, and Wire Jiggling

In intelligence and security tradecraft, a “honey pot” is a an attractive-looking trap intended to compel a target to make a run at, with the end-result of either collecting intelligence on the target or capturing it. Similarly, there is a technique known as “jiggling the wire” in which an operative/organization does or says something to provoke the opposition into acting, usually in a manner counter to the opposition’s best interests.

With that in mind, let’s look at a recent Tweet by Congress Critter Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

Damn, I wish I had that many followers, retweets and likes. If you want to help me out with that, here’s my Twitter page.

So we have this nice, vague Tweet that has generated a fair amount of controversy, but as I have said before, only amateurs telegraph intent because your intended target(s) may decide to start the party early because they think they’re gonna get whacked.

Since the beginning of the year, 8751 bills were introduced into Congress, AOC was responsible for 23 of them or 0.2% of all legislation introduced. Research shows all those bills are currently stuck in committee and will probably die there. Meanwhile in the past 10 years she has cranked out 11,500 Tweets. That would equal about three Tweets a day.

Now think about what I said in the first paragraph… And think about all the time wasted worrying about what some big-mouthed New Yorker who is all talk and little (if any) action is saying on Twitter. Time you could have better spent studying this book, or this one.

Or I dare say even reading through the amazing stuff you can find here.

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08.9.20

Sunday Dispatch For August 9th, 2020 – 0x6715A74

Good morning. On this day in 1892, Thomas Edison received a patent for a two-way telegraph, and in 1944 the United States Forest Service and the Wartime Advertising Council released posters featuring Smokey Bear for the first time.

Our Youtube Recommendation for the week is here:

Tropical Storm Isaiah breezed through here last Tuesday, leaving a heck of a lot of damage, and a four-day grid outage in the neighborhood. The biggest take-aways from this one are:

  1. You can never have enough water, and really should have a generator big enough to run your well pump or a gravity-fed cistern as back-up water source.
  2. You can never have enough batteries.
  3. You need to be able to navigate around multiple obstacles to get home.

COMINT collection was successful overall, as many rural town public works/highway departments in the area are still running analog conventional radio systems on VHF and occasionally UHF. Surprisingly enough, the local electrical utility still uses VHF low-band, although a conventional UHF repeater system was also discovered.

One of the better sources of local information was on Facebook “town talks” group pages. Our town pages had all sorts of OSINT on road and business closures, item availability, and grid conditions.

The local power company’s website was totally useless, as the sheer number outage reports broke it. Many people reported that their neighborhood was still being listed as “evaluating outage” after power was restored.

Internet connectivity was and always will be dependent on electrical power availability. Reports showed Telco-provided ADSL lasted longer after the power outage than CATV Internet. Wireless common carrier Internet stayed up, but became overwhelmed as hardwired systems started failing. Complicating matters were issues from a network merger between Sprint and T-Mobile.

We have always said that if you want reliable comms, never trust someone else’s infrastructure. While Amateur Radio SKYWARN and ARES operations were active, disaster radio comms still remain a niche thing, especially in short term disasters where people have enough wireless common carrier connectivity to reach Facebook and make phone calls. It is what it is.

There is a saying, “If the map doesn’t match the terrain, change the map.” We can wax poetic about grid-down communications using Amateur Radio, CB, FRS, et al, but the reality showed that the future is going to be Part 15-based wireless data infrastructure since that’s what everyone has.

08.6.20

Looking Behind the Curtain

http://socialdata.site/

You know what to do, especially when combined with manuals from previous posts.